Regime change is an effort to overthrow the leadership of a foreign country by the use or threat of force. The intent is to replace the existing government with one that benefits the intervening power. Usually, this means promoting democracy and/or advancing economic interests. The problem is that regime change efforts are ineffective at best and often lead to disastrous outcomes for American citizens and the people of the targeted nation.
For example, the CIA’s attempt to overthrow the Guatemalan government in 1954 led to civil war and a dictatorship that lasted nearly two decades. A similar pattern played out in Chile when Washington scuttled democratically elected Jacobo Arbenz’s government and installed a military dictatorship led by Salvador Allende. The United States tried to overthrow Mohammad Mossadegh in Iran in 1953, and it was another decade before democracy returned there.
Moreover, regime-change advocates typically don’t know enough about the societies they target to make smart decisions about how to set up a new order. They cannot discern which local leaders are trustworthy and honest, nor do they have sufficient cultural understanding to devise institutions that will be accepted by the population. They also lack the capacity to train and equip the military forces needed to stabilize the country after the coup.
In addition, once the old regime falls, it is often replaced by a different kind of oppressive power, such as a communist junta, theocratic tyranny, or dynastic tyranny, that will be more regressive and hostile to America’s interests. This is because these forms of rule are the only ones that can survive in the face of a popular uprising.